Slang Editorial :: Never Underestimate The Value Of A Holla'

Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Andy Pettite, Hall of Famer?

Rickey says Andy Pettite ain't no Hall of Famer.

In light of last night's two hitter, my friend Jon asked me today what I thought on Andy Pettite's candidacy as a Hall of Famer:

If he pitches one more good season after this one, is Andy Pettite a serious Hall candidate?

I'm not just asking this because of yesterday's game. He's been in the top six for Cy Young voting five times; could easily retire with 245 wins, and was one of the most important parts of the Yankees World Series teams. I think his PED use is a non-factor, since he's been more honest and handled it better than anyone else in the era. And I have to imagine that sportswriters love the guy.

Crazy? Would you vote for Mussina over him? Or neither?

I agree 100% that he's a serious candidate, and that he'll get serious consideration.

However: the knock against Pettite, and the reason I'd never vote for him if i could, is because not even for a single seasons ever was he ever one of the top three pitchers in MLB, or one of the top five, or, honestly, top 10.

None of this is a knock against the man, but: Andy Pettite was a very good pitcher with a lengthy career who had the luxury of all playing on what was--by far--the winningest team in all of baseball***, in the biggest market in the USA, for the most loved and storied franchise in baseball history. He really only had two great seasons, 1997 and 2005, and the rest of the time he was just a little better than average. In 1996, the year he finished #2 in Cy voting--a year which had arguably the WORST Cy Young qualifiers in the AL of any year in baseball history--he only got to #2 as a leading Yankee and by default of no better competition... and still Pat Hentgen was demonstrably better.

Pettite is a dude who will definitely get some support for all of the reasons I've listed above, and for the reason as Jon points out that he's bizarrely been credited in the post-steroids cloud for good behavior (which is odd given him actually admitting to having used them), but ultimately he's like a weaker Catfish Hunter with a longer career. And I therefore don't think he's a Hall of Famer.

And to answer Jon's last question, Mike Mussina is a MUCH better candidate than Pettite. In fact, Mussina is in so many ways the Burt Blyleven of the 90s/00s--a great pitcher who, through a combination of bad luck, bad markets, and good competition, missed out on the acclaim of his peers throughout his entire career. As Yankees fans, it's easy to forget that he was ever an Oriole, but in fact almost all of his best years were in Baltimore, as he didn't join the Yanks until he was 32. And that's the sad thing, because unlike Blyleven, Mussina did get to have a stretch on a great team in a big market, but it was already past the best years of his career. From 1992-2001, Mussina was one of the five best starters in the AL every year except 93 and 96, and in each of those years in the top 10 in baseball overall (occasionally in the top 3). He was no Martinez, Clemens, Maddux or Johnson, but as much as I don't want to admit it, he was probably as good as good as Tom Glavine and definitely John Smoltz (whose own candidacy I still question, honestly). And he won 270 games.

I'm not 100% sold on Mussina for the hall. I'm close, but I still think hemight be in the Tommy John / Jim Kaat category of pitchers who pitched very well for a very long time but were never really GREAT. I wish he had a single "blow me away" year, and he doesn't--versus, say, hated ex-yank Kevin Brown, who though he was a douche and was injured a lot, had six GREAT seasons, including two of which where he was robbed of the Cy Young ('96 and '98, by fave Braves both, natch). I'm not sure if Brown is a HoFer either, though I think probably he could be, but if he isn't it's for the brevity and not the quality.

Yeah ok. Done. No on Pettite.

Jon responded:

I agree, except I'm not sure I think that players necessarily need to be the top two or three in the league at a given moment of time to make the Hall. At various points in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Bret Saberhagen, Frank Viola and Jack McDowell were all among the best pitchers in baseball. They all won Cy Youngs, and had a string of three to five elite seasons. Obviously, they're straw-man examples whose careers were cut short for various reasons, and you're not saying that either one deserves it. But my broader question is, if someone is among the top three pitchers in the majors for six seasons, and someone else is among the top 10-15 pitchers for 15 seasons, is the first one more worth of Hall consideration. Or do you need a combination of eliteness and logevity?

You absolutely need a combination of eliteness and longevity... skimping can be had on the longevity but it requires the eliteness to be even greater. Nearly all the pitchers in the Hall now These are interesting examples: Frank Viola was great only for three years and, in fact, Jack McDowell is like a more overrated version of Andy Pettite but with a shorter career (and should have never won a Cy Young--poor Kevin Appier, the most unheralded pitcher of the 90s). Saberhagen, however, had Hall of Fame talent (in '85 and '89 he was by far the best in baseball and in 94 was #2 after Maddux) but had a strange career undone by injury and bad circumstance. Definitely not a Hall of Famer, at all, but that's beacuse he wasn't even close on the longevity. However, if I could have 1989 Saberhagen to pitch for me in a single game, I would take him over top-level Pettite, Viola, McDowell, Mussina or even Smoltz.

Finally, an amazing tidbit on Saberhagen: his control was so unbelievable that in 1994 he issued only 13 walks in 177 innings, which is not only the 32nd best mark ever but one of only two recorded in the top 50 that took place after 1933 (vast majority are from pre-1920, when it was another game). Coupled with the fact that he also had 143 Ks (unlike Carlos Silva, the other top 50 entrant, who got by on control but had no heat and only 71Ks), Saberhagen recorded that year THE BEST strikeout/walk ratio in baseball history. Of anyone, ever. So, were it not for the strike and Greg Maddux having a historical 1.56 ERA in 1994, Saberhagen would have easily had three Cy Youngs. And then we'd be talking about how in the hell we could deny Hall entry to one of only eight men who've ever won three Cy Youngs (all other seven are or will be in the Hall).

NOTES:

*** - article on the subject here of winningest teams of the 2000s here at Baseball Analysts

Labels: baseball, case studies, statistics, thoughts

posted by Nihilist Loves Hate, Hates Everything at 9/01/2009 11:16:00 AM 0 comments

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