Slang Editorial :: Never Underestimate The Value Of A Holla'

Sunday, May 03, 2009
Hot Starts On The Diamond

The Braves are depressing me this year so far--great pitching again, finally, offset by weirdly terrible hitting--but there have still been plenty of delights to this new season.

One of these delights is some great 2009 pitching. I mentioned two guys last week who've been on fire, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, and then there's also Johan Santana reclaiming his 2006 form, and the blossoming of young guys Yovanni Gallardo, Chad Billingsley, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and more. But in front of all of these guys (except perhaps Greinke and Santana) and the only pitcher in baseball to throw more than 40 innings so far is Dan Haren, ace of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

It's hard for me to believe that this is Haren's fifth year as a bigtime starter since he was fleeced from the Cardinals for a dead Mark Mulder after the 2004 season, but he's now had four increasingly stronger seasons--see his increase in K/9 innings rates of 6.7 ->7.1 -> 7.7 -> 8.58 from 2004 to 2008--and right now it seems as if he's breaking through yet another level from frontline starter to #1 elite.

As you can see in the gamelog below, Haren has pitched great in all six of his games--and he could easily be 5-1 or 6-0 if the Dbacks had scored more than one run in his three losses. And going back to K/9 rates, again, this year that stat too is at a personal high: 9.54. Though not required in determining pitching excellence, K/9 rate is generally tied to success; and when an individual player sees steady increases like Haren has, the signs of growing dominance are even more significant.

Danny Haren, Arizona Dbacks: 2009 Game Log

However: I wonder if this success will carry through for the entire year. More than almost any player in baseball, Haren has demonstrated himself to be a streaky player who pitches far better in the spring than in late summer.

Danny Haren, Arizona Dbacks: 2006-2008 Season Splits

Taking a quick look at the chart below, you will see that over the past three seasons, Haren has had promising first halves only to come unglued in the second. Returning to K/9 rates, interestingly enough Haren actually struck out less men in the first halves than he did in the seconds; however, he went from holding batters to a .219 average to watching them decimate him to the tune of a .291 average in the second half.

The difference is somewhat astonishing--we are not talking about slight or even considerable decreases in performance, but huge ones. In each of these three years, Haren's second half ERA was more than 1.40 above his first halves. I don't know enough about him to have any sense of what terrible tragedy befalls the man each July, August, and September, but I hope that someone on the Diamondbacks does and plans to do something this year to combat it. Haren also generally seems like one of baseball's "rad dudes" and for his sake, I sure hope this is the year he figures it out.

Labels: baseball, statistics

posted by Nihilist Loves Hate, Hates Everything at 5/03/2009 01:35:00 PM 0 comments

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